Arctic Ice Update

It has finally happened.

For the first time in human history, both fabled North West and North East passages are open, making the Arctic ocean capable of being circumnavigated. It is thought that this unprecedented event has never occurred during the last 125,000 years, and some scientists now believe that the Arctic ice cap is entering a death spiral from which it will never recover, leading to the Arctic being ice free during the summer months, perhaps as early as 2030.

The NSIDC reports (as of 26/8/2008) that the ice extent is the second lowest on record, and with a couple of weeks of ice melt left to come, it may well be that last year's largest ice loss record could be broken again.

The ice loss is regarded as direct evidence that our little lump of planetary rock IS warming, and whether you believe the warming is man-made (or worsened), as the IPCC consensus states, or entirely natural (as many believe to be the case), it would suggest that things are going to change for humanity rather significantly.

My question is - what if the Greenland ice cap IS following suite and also starts to disappear? Perhaps this is the time to buy shares in welly and boat manufacturing businesses?

More on Arctic Ice

Or perhaps that should read 'less of'?

Although this last winter the Arctic ice extent was greater than that of 2007, during which a record year for summer ice minimum coverage was established, it would appear that this year may also break that record.

This from BBC News reports on how the melting of the Arctic ice appears to be accelerating faster than ever.

Interestingly, some ice research groups are now predicting an ice free Arctic summer as early as 2013! How long before big oil's exploration rigs start to move in?

'Arctic is screaming'

From Fox News.

"The Arctic is often cited as the canary in the coal mine for climate warming...........Now as a sign of climate warming, the canary has died. It is time to start getting out of the coal mines."

All very depressing, but a major signal to those on their jolly in Bali. Let's hope they take some notice.

One eroding island, two opposing views

Sometimes you come across something by chance, as in the case with this article I spotted from the American Daily. As I read it my eyebrows raised ever higher; it's a vindictive and scurrilous attack on an original article from the LA Times, and on any who might dare to believe that climate change is anything to do with mankind.

At the bottom of this virulent diatribe is a reference to the original article from the LA Times.

Read both, and I'll bet your reaction is exactly like mine.

The thing is, neither the original nor the attack article reinforce the absolutely key point - the island is rapidly eroding because the autumn ice that used to protect Kivalina a couple of decades ago is no longer present, because of global warming. The Autumn storms now directly wash away the sand the coast of Kivalina is made from at will. It probably HAS been eroding for perhaps a 100 years+, but over the last 15 to 20 years it's been eroding at an ever increasing pace until it now threatens the Eskimo inhabitants with relocation.

But I guess my scientific viewpoint must be becoming obscured, because underneath, at least according to the American Daily, I'm just a simple 'globaloney scaremongerer'.

ADDENDUM - Junkk Male - Have Your Say: Environmental 'crime' - Kinda fits here

Climate change - it's all our fault. Discuss.

t'is... t'isn't T'IS! T'ISN'T! T'IS!!!!!! T'ISN'T!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh, you all ready are.

Me? I'm going with probably man-worsened climate change, just to err on the safe side for my kids' sakes.

But I'm sure another conference couldn't hurt, too. Indy can organise. And BP could sponsor it. And all the shouty types from either extreme could go there and do in person what they do here.

Leaving some free to set about DOING stuff.

That said, it's tricky without first asking a few questions, especially those to which the answers remaining tantalisingly vague.

Like why the BBC and many media are running headlines about how we 'could' be running on wind-powered renewable energy if enough money is thrown around. Why 'could'? Can't we see what the actual numbers are? They must exist. Wind speeds. Durations. Conversions. Lifespan of gearboxes in exposed salt-air conditions. The ROI? The enviROI?

Having bought into the caution, I don't mind getting on board with mitigations or even reductions, but I have to be convinced first.

Yet the big argument seems still to be whether they are even necessary. So to those of the more pessimistic persuasion, I'd suggest leaving those who would stall progress by arguing %ages in glorious isolation (and for sure don't leave open goals by trying the 'there's a funded cabal of big oilers spoiling the thread' argument at the expense of coming up with a decent one to make a decent point), and focus more on making what may well need to be done a lot more convincing and/or palatable to the vast majority ducking under such absolutist 'debate' and trying to get on with their lives.

Fat chance.

Carry on smokin'.

Indy - This project is a licence to wreak environmental havoc - I append this for a few reasons. Firstly, I note that this is a leader penned by just one party to the argument. I always find this discomfiting, partly because of what it means to the quality of informed, balanced debate (can't quiet see a BP rep. having much chance with an upside, mind), but also how it erodes one's faith in the medium. Preaching to the converted my be more comfortable, but I am unsure as to its value.

That all said, it also highlights why I have such mixed feelings on Greepeace. This kind of thing they seem good at. However, the wind power flag-waver I saw on TV today was less than inspiring in his 'green at any cost' advocacy.

No wonder the Arctic ice melt was a record

This from today's Independent reports that scientists on Melville Island, usually one of the coldest places within the Arctic circle, recorded a summer temperature of 22C. This is where the daily summer temperature rarely goes above 5C.

Now 22C is about as warm as I can remember it getting where I live in the UK this summer! Whether or not you believe global warming is man-made, man-enhanced or just simply a natural cycle, an Arctic circle temperature of 22C is pretty damned significant evidence, along with a record ice melt year, that something rather strange is happening to the climate of our little lump of planetary rock.

ADDENDUM (by Junkk Male) -

I'll be impressed that any can deny that something darned odd isn't happening!

However, just to show that the causes (enviROI+ mitigation being a given, at least on this blog) may not be so clear cut... yet: Carbon Dioxide Did Not End The Last Ice Age, Study Says

What I loved was the Google ad:

Global Warming
If you are aged 11-18 you can win a trip to see the impact first hand
climatechallenge.gov.uk/competition

That'll sort it!

Real Climate - Cosmic rays don’t die so easily - now that little lot takes some wading through!

Arctic ice thaw may represent a 'tipping point'

There's that word again, may, it occurs an awful lot in anything where climate change is being discussed, so, at least for now, let's stick to the facts that we actually know.

We do know that this summer a record for the melting of the Arctic ice cap occurred; well, at least as far as accurate human modern records go back; "The Arctic summer sea ice shrank by more than 20 percent below the previous 2005 record low in mid-September to 4.13 million sq km (1.6 million sq miles), according to a 30-year satellite record."

We do know that the albedo effect can be scientifically measured; the white ice cover reflects an awful lot of solar energy back into space, whilst open sea water absorbs a lot more heat energy; therefore the less Arctic ice cover exists, the more heat energy is absorbed by the sea, thereby contributing to warming.

What we don't know is if there is any sort of 'tipping point', beyond which the ice will disappear far more rapidly, allowing far more heat into the Arctic Ocean and contributing significantly to global warming.

However, there is a lot of talk about theoretical tipping points, so when some 'experts' are suggesting that we are already past, at, or at least rapidly reaching the 'tipping point' for the Arctic Ice cap, then perhaps its time to start worrying. This, from PlanetArk, reports on the comments of the 'experts' involved.

"The reason so much (of the Arctic ice) went suddenly is that it is hitting a tipping point that we have been warning about for the past few years"

"In Germany, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research says Arctic sea ice has 'already tipped'."

"I'd say we are reaching a tipping point or are past it for the ice. This is a strong indication that there is an amplifying mechanism here"

Three different 'experts', three slightly different conclusions, but all enough, perhaps, to give us all some cause for concern.

The thing is, the disappearing Arctic ice will barely affect sea levels at all, but if the Greenland ice sheet follows in the steps of the Arctic ice cap at anything like the same pace, and there are some initial indications that this is happening, as we have already mentioned, then mankind is going to be facing some very serious problems over the coming decades.

"It is a very good lesson, because the ice sheets (on Greenland and Antarctica) have their own tipping points, somewhat harder to get started but far more dangerous for humanity around the globe"

The Greenland ice sheet holds enough fresh water to raise sea levels by about 7 metres if it all melts; that, I read somewhere recently, would do for over half of this planet's major cities.

Anyone fancy a trip to Arks'R'Us?

Addendum:
Cameron could have a bit of a tough time on the subject of climate change; it looks like the Tories' Freedom Association thinks that climate change is all a load of bull. See 'Tory climate change sceptics' from the Guardian.

Arctic Ice Watch - Update

Following on from our last report, the rapid disappearance of the Arctic's ice cover finally seems to have ceased. The NSIDC reports that, based on the 5 day moving average that they use, the minimum ice coverage occured about the 16th September. (Note that they do point out that at this time of year it is still possible for some additional ice loss to occur.)

On this date the ice extent coverage was 4.13 million square kilometers (1.59 million square miles) which appears to be the 2007 minimum. The five-day 2005 minimum (the previous record low) was 5.32 million square kilometers (2.05 million square miles) in 2005, which has been shattered by 1.19 million square kilometers (460,000 square miles). That's an area of ice less than before that is roughly the size of Texas and California combined, or nearly five United Kingdoms.

On top of that, the fabled North West passage has been largely navigable for just over 5 weeks, something that has not occurred in recorded human history. Even the North-East passage has only been blocked by a few kilometres of ice this year.

Whichever side of the climate change debate you fall on (man-made, natural or man enhanced natural), the evidence that the planet is warming significantly and rapidly is now almost unarguable.

What on earth will the next few decades bring about for the Arctic? The Costa Del Greenland perhaps?

Growing broccoli in Greenland

As reported in Guardian CIF today.

The article contains some very interesting and some very worrying snippets.

"The IPCC predicted an ice-free Arctic by the end of the century; some scientists now predict it for 2020. Ten years ago, it was thought that the Greenland ice cap - 11,000 feet high in some places - would take centuries to melt. Now, the pace of melting of the ice cap, and the unpredictable interaction of the feedback loops such melting may trigger, makes any firm prediction hazardous. In Greenland they know human civilisation is already entering unknown territory."

"But as the ice melts, the dark seas and the bare rock surface absorb heat, further accelerating melting and triggering sea level rises that will inundate, among other places, the Nile Delta, much of San Francisco and 40% of Bangladesh."

"'For the last 10,000 years,' Corell says, 'we have been living in a remarkably stable climate that has allowed the whole of human development to take place. In all that time, through the mediaeval warming and the Little Ice Age, there was only a variation of 1C. Now we see the potential for sudden changes of between 2C and 6C. We just don't know what the world is like at those temperatures. We are climbing rapidly out of mankind's safe zone into new territory, and we have no idea if we can live in it."

As the Arctic ice cap itself is disappearing (see Arctic Ice Update), the Greenland ice sheet appears to be starting to follow suit too. The potential for sea level rises that may have massive effects on mankind is well understood. The worrying thing is that the evidence suggests that it is already starting to happen at an accelerating pace.

Arctic Ice Watch - Update

A little while back, we commented on the new record for a minimum of ice coverage across the Arctic ocean. See Arctic Ice Hits New Record Low.

Well, only a few weeks later, as reported by the National Snow & Ice Data Centre, the disappearance of the ice coverage has continued at an astonishing and unprecedented rate. As of the 9th September, the Arctic sea ice extent has dropped "to 4.24 million square kilometers (1.63 million square miles), falling yet further below the previous record absolute minimum of 5.32 million square kilometers (2.05 million square miles) that occurred on September 20–21, 2005".

With still perhaps two more weeks of melt, we may actually see the mythical North-East passage open at this rate. (The North-West passage has already been fully navigable for several weeks.)

I don't often fully side with Greenpeace .....

.... but, for once, I support this particular initiative, and would urge all our readers to do just the same.

We have mentioned the Arctic gold rush on a number of occasions in this very blog. See Gold Under Them There Bergs and Giant Leap Backwards, voicing the very same concerns that Greenpeace is now doing.

However, as this article from the Greenpeace web pages explains, what we really need, as the Arctic polar ice field slowly disappears, is for the Arctic resources to be protected from exploitation just as those of the Antarctic are under the 1991 international agreement. They ask that all readers sign a petition requesting the very same protection for the Arctic, and seek to have it given the status of a World Park.

I urge all readers to please visit the link and sign the petition. That is, if you prefer the Arctic to remain an untouched world park rather then see it get turned into yet another major oilfield.

And yes, I know the little film clip is utterly naff!!

Arctic ice cover hits new record low

A little while back there were several predictions that this year the annual summer melt would mean that the arctic ice cover would reach a new record low. This from the BBC on August 13th is one such report.

As of the 16th August, the ice cover had already retreated to what was its previous record minimum extent. See these dramatic images from the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Now, as of the 22nd August, it is "currently tracking at 4.92 million square kilometers (1.89 million square miles), already below the 2005 record absolute minimum of 5.32 million square kilometers (2.05 million square miles)"; and there are still perhaps 4 to 6 weeks of melting to go yet!

No wonder the Arctic gold (Oil) rush seems to have already begun!

And its getting so warm that the Innuit are now wandering around wearing T shirts and sandals! (As reported in today's Gruaniad)

"One giant leap backward for life on Earth"

Further to the post on the potential riches hidden on the sea bed under the arctic ice cap comes a second article, this time from the LA Times, which provides another set of alarming information.

Apparently, geologists believe that something like 25% of the planet's as yet undiscovered oil and gas may lie under the arctic ice, so its no real surprise that the Russian two miles deep flag planting stunt took place last week. And now "Norway, Canada and Denmark (through its possession of Greenland) are all using the continental-shelf argument to claim the Arctic seabed as an extension of their own sovereign territories".

OK, not specifically alarming in its own right, though the geo-political arguments that will ensue as these and other major world powers start to argue about just how to divvy up the arctic's riches are the sort of thing that has caused major conflict throughout human history. No, this worry concerns something else that is locked up under the ice, and in the permafrost in the surrounding continental land masses.

"While governments and oil giants are hoping the melting ice will allow them access to the world's last treasure trove of oil and gas, climatologists are deeply worried about something else buried under the ice that, if unearthed, could wreak havoc on the biosphere, with dire consequences for human life."

The big worry is the release of CO2 and, more importantly, methane, which scientists have long known to be the most potent of the greenhouse gases, as organic matter locked up in the permafrost and on the seabed decays when warming occurs. I'll let these quotes from the article make the key points.


" ... researchers warned of a tipping point sometime within this century, when the release of methane could create an uncontrollable feedback effect, dramatically warming the atmosphere, which would in turn warm the land, lakes and seabed, further melting the permafrost and releasing more methane. Once that threshold is reached, there will be nothing humans can do. Scientists suspect that similar events have occurred in the ancient past, between glacial periods."

"A global tragedy of monumental proportions is unfolding at the top of the world, and the human race is all but oblivious to what's happening. "

I've always found some human behaviour very strange, and this is no exception. Here we have climatologists warning of an atmospheric methane injection tipping point that may cause runaway global warming; yet all the various governments appear to worry about is how to grab as much of the arctic's potential resources as possible.

It was ever thus.

There's gold under them there bergs!

It has not taken very long for some to realise that as global warming takes hold, and the Arctic ice disappears, there is a huge gamut of potentially useful resources that will become accessible for exploitation.

An article from Economist.com signals the starting gun for the race for the Arctic's available riches; as they headline it - The Gold Rush Under The Ice.

Amongst others, at stake are potentially huge mineral, oil and gas resources.

"They may include 10 billion tonnes of oil and gas deposits, tin, manganese, gold, nickel, lead, platinum and diamonds, plus fish and perhaps even lucrative freight routes. Exploiting them will be technically tricky, and is probably decades away. But as the ice melts, the row is hotting up about who owns what’s underneath it."

Although it may yet be a few decades yet before these resources become feasibly accessible, our Soviet friends are already attempting a massive geo-political annexation of an enormous portion of the Arctic area.

I wonder just how long it will be before the world's super powers get together to divvy up this untouched region amongst themselves?

Resource greed seems to have become the primary driving factor for mankind. And, not for the first time, I feel ashamed at being a member of our resource ravenous human race.
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