Playing Chicken Little

Today there was a classic example of how rushing out notions in support of your beliefs can end up doing more harm than good.

It cannot have escaped most folks' notice that of late, the weather has been less than clement. As I write a cold drizzle decorates my window. I can only imagine how those in the campsite opposite are feeling.

And this has been picked up by the 'news'. So we have the odd spectacle of the BBC reporting crew exchanging barbed commentary with the weather guys. 'How did you get it so wrong', was about the most polite interrogation.

To which, reasonably, the reply was that such things were almost impossible to predict.

Trouble is, a lot of folk seem to make a lot of noise based on predictions. And this summer was going to be long, hot, and non-stop BBQ. It may yet get there, and I am hoping for something nicer for our camping trip in a few weeks' time. It's hard to keep kids entertained under wet canvas for long.

But for now, there is quite a lot of egg on faces, and I rather fear more sober cautions on climate will get rather swamped by overly enthusiastic folk - using what they think will 'prove' their case - getting a bit of a hammering from those equally keen to 'prove' the exact opposite.

Frankly, from floods to heatwaves to hurricanes to even melting Greenland glaciers (some have used a piece on this to enquire as to how this country acquired its name, pre-Humvee), I think those advocating caution, moderation and even reduction might be better tasked looking at ways to motivate other than 'the sky is falling'. Especially when they put quantitative data on it all which proves unsound.

Telegraph - NEW - Start with the Met Office, Dave - It seems others have noticed, and views

BBC - NEW - Met Office cools summer forecast - Ten ways to beat the heat

Indy - NEW - The Big Question: Why did the Met Office get it so wrong?

Guardian - NEW - Rain puts dampers on 'barbecue summer' - the inevitable exchanges have rather made my point

The weather's going crazy

Yesterday afternoon I stood outside the office in a temperature of 11C. At the same time today it was -2.5C, and with a biting easterly wind making it feel more like -10C.

And if that simply demonstrates the daily extremes that our little planet seems to be suffering, how about this from WFTV, reporting on snow flurries in Florida of all places!

Strangely, a couple of weeks ago I was convinced that I saw some swallows winging around the estate. I kept my mouth shut, fearing ridicule from my peers, and dismissed the evidence of my eyes. I decided that I was perhaps way overdue for my annual sight test at the opticians. Then today, I found out I wasn't going mad, when I chanced upon this from the Telegraph - therein it states that swallows were spotted in Cheshire in December!

One swallow doesn't make a summer, they say. Perhaps in a few years time we'll have to change it to 'one swallow doesn't make a winter'?

There's climate. And the weather. And how it gets referred to.

I liked his book. Seems a nice guy. But Leo Hickman has dropped a notch in my estimation here: And now for the weather

From the BBC pitching English grads to 'analyse' environmental data, to Al Gore being called a climate science student, I am seeing a worrying trend.

And that is some precautionary advocates getting a little out of their depth on the science side and paying the price.

Trouble is, they take a lot with them. Their past good works for one. And the task those trying to stay on a very objective course with roughly the same aim, but different methodologies.

I won't be posting as this looks like a really t'is/tisn't flame war in the making. I just hope the rebuttal doesn't end up with the now wearily familiar 'so ok it's not all accurate, but his heart's in the right place'.

Do they know something we don't?

This little snippet from Product-Reviews suggests that Safeway Homes are now starting to build new UK properties that are capable of withstanding hurricane force winds without suffering major structural damage.

Now, I don't recollect the UK ever being hit by a genuine hurricane, so just who is predicting that we may be seeing one or two in the future?

And then I spotted this from Sustainable Development International, which, albeit US based, is predicting that Super Hurricanes are now to be expected, at least on their particular side of the big pond.

Maybe its time to reconsider building that same underground bunker that my parents always talked about doing during the cold war?

And here's the weather summary - 'Extreme'

By now we have pretty much all recognised that our traditional British weather does not appear to be quite what it used to be. Today's Indy has a fascinating article on the extremes of weather that we, along with others around our little planetary lump of rock, have suffered over recent years. And yes, it all appears to be entirely consistent with global warming.

"in the UK alone, in the past 14 months we have experienced the hottest July, the hottest April and the wettest June since records began. We have seen the hottest autumn and the hottest spring, and the second-hottest winter. We have also seen the hottest single month, and - by a considerable margin - the hottest single 12-month period."

And if we manage just a few more millilitres of rainfall before August is out, then 2007 will have been the wettest ever summer on record!

Meanwhile, this from WSWS, reports on research that predicts that great tracts of Spain are set to become desert before too long! (Maybe we will see ex-pat migration coming back the other way in 20 or 30 years or so?)

Yet, despite the daily evidence of climate change, our own leaders continue to provide no cohesive climate change messages. Just days after downgrading the status of the parliamentary climate change committee to a toothless waste of time, the government requests a study to look at putting in place additional flood protection for London! It would appear that the Thames barrier (as reported by the Beeb) may not be up to the job it was designed to do as soon as 2030!

A new Thames barrier is predicted to cost some £20 Billion. Anyone care to take a wager that this will be at least £50 Billion by the time it gets built?