Friday, August 15, 2008

Movin' on

I have today waded through a rather predictable set of stories, and responses to same, in major media and blogosphere, regarding this undoubted fact:

Climate 'altering UK bird habits'

Now I have a stated reluctance to getting into any 'tis/t'isn't barnies here as they seem to go nowhere fast, but not fast enough to avoid consuming yet more time it is possible we may not have.

What rather amazes me is that still the 'optimists' seem rather stuck in an increasingly odd groove, namely that nothing is happening. I've seen all sorts of 'responses', to ice sheet thicknesses and weather patterns, etc, that are still harking to the notion of 'warming' as the one and only thing that should be happening and isn't. I think I've seen one guy actually write that he's got his jummy on in August, and that's never happened before, so it can't be warming.

No, but it does seem to be 'changing'.

Thing is, many of these knee-jerks are kind of in response to equally clunky attempts to pin anything and everything on climate change (which it does, all the time), but more controversially down to man.

Dilemma. If you want to change behaviours, you need to point at causes and solutions. Trouble is, so far, I don't think we know enough to be certain, but we live in a world of absolutes now. And saying it for certain, even if just to get a reaction, can rather backfire, especially if things don't then pan out as predicted (which, in matters of TV minutes vs. geological timeframes isn't helpful). Also, it really doesn't help if the 'solutions' are more on the negative side...stop, don't, etc.

I don't pretend to have the answers either, but one I certainly do advocate is the pessimists learning a bit of judo and going with the opponents' strengths rather than standing rigid and getting flattened.

Frankly, as a bit of science, if the trend in bird nesting has moved (though reports of it being by 'a week' didn't really seem that awful to my non-ornithological mind) then leave it at that.

I'm sure if we are also getting information on PMWNCC, then most can connect the dots without it being the primary reason for everything.

Now, if we can accept that it is changing, what do we...

Gaurdian - NEW - Warming warnings get overheated

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