More CIF Peak Oil Argument

As ever, any article on Peak Oil in The Guardian's CIF section attracts a huge barrage of proponents from the extremes at both ends, and this is no exception.

Now I cannot understand why the concept of Peak Oil can be regarded as a 'doomsday cult' as the author implies. Likewise, in response to "And there is a grain of truth to peak oil theory. Oil is a finite reserve, so the more we extract, the closer we come to exhausting the resource."; A 'grain of truth'! It's an inescapable fact! Look, crude oil is a finite resource that human beings risk exhausting to their own detriment, as our modern industrial civilization is based almost entirely upon it!

No-one, other than a handful of real doom-mongerers, is suggesting that Peak Oil implies a sudden and disastrous disappearance of petroleum as a resource. However, it is entirely clear that over the coming decades the amount of easily available and recoverable sweet (i.e. easily usable) crude is without doubt going to decline. It may decline slowly over several decades, or it may start to decline at an accelerating rate some time in the future, but decline it inevitably will.

As for Peak Oil's proponents being "a rag-bag of geologists, green activists, Malthusians, and people who yearn for a return to some pre-industrial idyll", well, the only one of those monikers I can hold my hand up to is that I am (well, was) a trained Geologist (Geo-Chemist actually).

And comparing the cost of a barrel of oil with a barrel of Coca-Cola - well, that has to be one of the most spurious comparisons I have ever seen!

Perhaps, as one of the CIF posters suggests, we should term the problem that is now starting to confront us as Cheap Oil, rather than Peak Oil. Maybe more people will be able to understand that description.

Whatever side of the argument that you sit on, it is abundantly clear that: in conjunction with [Likely] Man Worsened Climate Change (with its associated loss of water supplies and harsher crop growing conditions); an already rapid increase in the prices of staple foodstuffs; the ever increasing population of our little lump of planetary rock; our continuing destruction of native environments in the pursuit of earning a few bucks; our rape of the oceans already highly depleted resources; Peak (OK then, Cheap) Oil, is simply one problem in a long list of issues that humanity needs to address urgently.

Now if that makes me subject to being termed a 'Malthusian' then so be it. Sorry, but to me, it seems little more than basic common sense. Remember what happened to the population of Easter Island?

You can't push cream.

It rises to the top.

I was reminded of this as I processed a series of disconnected segments of BBC Breakfast news this morning.

And I also harked back to when I was an agency head in Singapore and the government there decided something needed to be done to 'create' more 'creativity' in a country noted for lots of right brain graft and diliegnt application, but perhaps not so much left brain inspiration.

So they convened a bunch of types like me from perceived 'creative' professions to outline their vision. This seemed to revolve around establishing a centre of creative excellence in Jurong, which is in the industrial heartland of the city state, filling it full of nifty stuff and state glee clubbers, and...voila!

Most round the table smiled and said 'great!'. Why not? It wasn't going to cost us anything. Then a hand popped up. Mine. I simply offered the view that, in my experience, around the world most original, innovative creativity mostly evolved from a less structured environment. Not a hothouse, especially one on a flatted factory in an estate. SoHo, Covent Garden. Left Bank.

I was not invited back.

Now I see that £800M has been 'invested', to little effect, to keep kids in University as 25% are dropping out. Seems the new education systems may be getting a lot more eligible to enter, but not so much to cope. The aim seems more to support the aims of targets than any actual educational benefits, to state or student. A bunch of kids into a system they may not be suited for and out without much they can apply. Worryingly, the new plan is erring more in throwing more money to adjust things some more so they still go in no matter what, to maximsie the 'benefits' their tuition fee debts confer.

I counterpoint this with a story about a South London state school that is cranking out some of greater new art talents. The difference? The principal is quoted as being interested in only developing their skills to fulfill the pontetial they wish to pursue. Not, X-factor-like, to shape a predetermined plan of what a minority think should be.

And it seems to work. With the public. QED.

What's this got to do with the environment? Well, apply it all, just to this industry. The waste. The misguided faith in meddling. The money blown on a system vs. letting what works evolve with support, but a more benign, results rather process-oriented aim.

All nature's creatures

I was tempted recently to get a biosphere.

It's one of those do-dads that is a sealed globe that mimics the earth's eco-system. Though I suspect without a few complicating factors, such as animals... and especially the human variety.

It set me to thinking a bit about some of the ideals put about, especially by those who see nature as the best architect and homo sapiens as the fly in the ointment, rather forgetting that we are merely part of Gaia's grand design.

So I just pondered an arbitrary, isolated area sustaining 'life'. Ignoring more global factors, the sun shines, it rains, the seasons change. The plants grow. Herbivores graze, and the availability of food and water regulates their numbers. And, just for good measure, predator carnivores do that job too, with a bit of Darwinian culling going on to on the herbivores and between themselves. On balance, that seems to work. In times of plenty, numbers go up. And in times of hardship they go down. And whatever happens there is an upper limit the land can, and hence will sustain.

Then along comes man. Well, the first to go will be the predators. For a start they are dangerous, and then for another they are competition. Next to go will be the herbivores, at least if they need the land man requires to live upon and grow crops (though we may keep some for burger purposes). And then we do what we do best. And as our numbers grow we occupy this finite space more and more, and cleverly squeeze more and more out of whatever remains to sustain ourselves.

But... and here's the rub... there still has to be a limit. It seems odd that so few seem to have admitted, much less addressed this notion.

Anything else, from plastic bag bans to renewable energy subsidies, seem more tinkering (albeit profitable, at least short term and just to some) simply to buy some more time.

Less is, well, less, but with luck as good as it should be

There is a major spring clean stuttering along at Junkk Towers.

Mostly it is because, between the site evolution and the blog demands, there is simply too much going on for little old me to handle properly. And as I feel I am doing all poorly, until I can find, and fund, a way to do all well, the only real option is to cut back and do as much as I can better.

And that includes the blog.

I've claimed this before mind, and the addiction is hard to resist. And even as the backlog of simple articles and links worth having on the site extends to the hundreds, so almost all also are hard to resit commenting upon in some way. which currently is not simply possible.

So... what to do?

Well, on this blog you will, when I get a moment, be soon discovering some new, and I hope exciting interim plans for the site, many of which will also involve the blog, as I have mentioned before the interface here is now so superior to my site's management system it is easier to create here and import over. Not that I have been much... like a year. And having hit 3,000 for the opt in newsltter, I think a new one might be... overdue.

And all this does have a bearing on the blog.

I am hence planning to try and restrict myself to two main areas: the factual and the philosophical. By factual I refer to pure information, probably under category headings that you will have seen cropping up of late. Not much more than a link, attribution and maybe a line or two of top line opinion or a caveat or somesuch.

Then there is the more philosophical. This is musing on the overall scheme of things rather than much specific, though there will almost always be a story and/or link that has inspired.

Anyway, between with these two bookends from me and Dave's more than useful and welcome additions to any I might find it hard to resist to add inbetween I hope the blog will remain of use and stimulating.

If not, please let me knwo and tell me what I can do btter. Given time.

I have seen the future, and it hurts

Without coming over all commy, I saw this and cannot not help but reiterate something that I have blogged before (and will doubtless do so again): City bonuses hit record high with £14bn payout - Executives fuel spiralling demand for luxury goods.

There are more and more of 'us'. And as a percentage, there seems to be more and more of 'us' (present compnay excepted) with a fair wadge of wonga. Most have acquired this whilst also becoming more and more time poor.

So what else, exactly, can they be expected to do than blow the money and precious moments on stuff and travel simply to justify the process of acquiring it? It's not an excuse, but it certainly is a reason. One that needs to be faced up to. Meanwhile the self-same media who purport to be concerned about all this continue to feed the process, with editorial on weekend breaks in the Maldives and articles on long distance affairs or cosmetic tourism.

And ads such as the one from Volkswagen on one page advocating using as little fuel as possible on one page, with a nice big glossy one to plug the Touran on another. With, for good measure, a Castrol ad showing the ideal car to be stuck in a traffic jam to be... a Touran! No wonder the cute little engine from the ActonCO2 ad is looking like it's running out of steam (I really recommend blowing the money where it might do some good, guys, as this ain't it).

They really like letting these modern day Marie Antoinettes have their cake so long as the get to go along for the ride to eat the scraps.