Oo, look, a wolf! And another one. And this time it's HUGE!

I like Treehugger. They have a nice wadge of fun stuff and info and articles and even spirited debate.

However, I don't think they are doing themselves, or any with a concern about what's going on climatically (just had hail and sunshine alternating 3 times in the last hour) and how to address it, many favours with headlines like this:

Bye bye Greenland

Whatever else might happen, I doubt that Greenland is going bye bye. The name itself suggests an earlier incarnation. I believe vineyards were harvested by the Vikings.

All this will do is pit the Two Opposing Corners of the Apocalypse (acronym alert: TOCOTA) against each other... again.

It doesn't really matter much what the end point is, or is not, really, but if there is a direction we're headed, and certain stuff might be wise now, I simply advocate, again, that we look at sensible mitigations.

There is a case for figuring it all out as well long term to ensure resources get directed when and where they will do most good, but this end of the world stuff now kinda just feeds fuel to the absolutists (on both sides - you are either for us or agin' us) to talk us to death for longer.

Hence my not pitching in over there. I think that one is a fight that will last forever, with no middle ground allowed.

Arctic ice thaw may represent a 'tipping point'

There's that word again, may, it occurs an awful lot in anything where climate change is being discussed, so, at least for now, let's stick to the facts that we actually know.

We do know that this summer a record for the melting of the Arctic ice cap occurred; well, at least as far as accurate human modern records go back; "The Arctic summer sea ice shrank by more than 20 percent below the previous 2005 record low in mid-September to 4.13 million sq km (1.6 million sq miles), according to a 30-year satellite record."

We do know that the albedo effect can be scientifically measured; the white ice cover reflects an awful lot of solar energy back into space, whilst open sea water absorbs a lot more heat energy; therefore the less Arctic ice cover exists, the more heat energy is absorbed by the sea, thereby contributing to warming.

What we don't know is if there is any sort of 'tipping point', beyond which the ice will disappear far more rapidly, allowing far more heat into the Arctic Ocean and contributing significantly to global warming.

However, there is a lot of talk about theoretical tipping points, so when some 'experts' are suggesting that we are already past, at, or at least rapidly reaching the 'tipping point' for the Arctic Ice cap, then perhaps its time to start worrying. This, from PlanetArk, reports on the comments of the 'experts' involved.

"The reason so much (of the Arctic ice) went suddenly is that it is hitting a tipping point that we have been warning about for the past few years"

"In Germany, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research says Arctic sea ice has 'already tipped'."

"I'd say we are reaching a tipping point or are past it for the ice. This is a strong indication that there is an amplifying mechanism here"

Three different 'experts', three slightly different conclusions, but all enough, perhaps, to give us all some cause for concern.

The thing is, the disappearing Arctic ice will barely affect sea levels at all, but if the Greenland ice sheet follows in the steps of the Arctic ice cap at anything like the same pace, and there are some initial indications that this is happening, as we have already mentioned, then mankind is going to be facing some very serious problems over the coming decades.

"It is a very good lesson, because the ice sheets (on Greenland and Antarctica) have their own tipping points, somewhat harder to get started but far more dangerous for humanity around the globe"

The Greenland ice sheet holds enough fresh water to raise sea levels by about 7 metres if it all melts; that, I read somewhere recently, would do for over half of this planet's major cities.

Anyone fancy a trip to Arks'R'Us?

Addendum:
Cameron could have a bit of a tough time on the subject of climate change; it looks like the Tories' Freedom Association thinks that climate change is all a load of bull. See 'Tory climate change sceptics' from the Guardian.

Growing broccoli in Greenland

As reported in Guardian CIF today.

The article contains some very interesting and some very worrying snippets.

"The IPCC predicted an ice-free Arctic by the end of the century; some scientists now predict it for 2020. Ten years ago, it was thought that the Greenland ice cap - 11,000 feet high in some places - would take centuries to melt. Now, the pace of melting of the ice cap, and the unpredictable interaction of the feedback loops such melting may trigger, makes any firm prediction hazardous. In Greenland they know human civilisation is already entering unknown territory."

"But as the ice melts, the dark seas and the bare rock surface absorb heat, further accelerating melting and triggering sea level rises that will inundate, among other places, the Nile Delta, much of San Francisco and 40% of Bangladesh."

"'For the last 10,000 years,' Corell says, 'we have been living in a remarkably stable climate that has allowed the whole of human development to take place. In all that time, through the mediaeval warming and the Little Ice Age, there was only a variation of 1C. Now we see the potential for sudden changes of between 2C and 6C. We just don't know what the world is like at those temperatures. We are climbing rapidly out of mankind's safe zone into new territory, and we have no idea if we can live in it."

As the Arctic ice cap itself is disappearing (see Arctic Ice Update), the Greenland ice sheet appears to be starting to follow suit too. The potential for sea level rises that may have massive effects on mankind is well understood. The worrying thing is that the evidence suggests that it is already starting to happen at an accelerating pace.