It's a gas, gas... er...

... that's all folks?

I have been sent the following press release from the University of Aberdeen (printed as posted, E&EO), that seems worthy of consideration.

I do so making a note to try and get my gasses sorted out soon, which may have a bearing on how and where this gets filed later for archiving.

I know that my cooker uses gas and, to the best of my knowledge this is 'natural' gas either from dwindling North Sea reserves or a tap with Mr. Putin's bear paws upon it. I also have a few bottled varieties, probably propane, for a few domestic uses such as a heater and the BBQ. And then there is my new transport option, running on LPG which, though I need to confirm this, is actually not too different (if at all) from that propane.

Natural gas as answer to oil decline could lead to catastrophe, says leading expert

Ploughing resources into the use of natural gas as an alternative energy supply could lead to global shortage within 20 years time, according to a leading energy expert.

Professor in Physics at Uppsala University in Sweden, Kjell Aleklett, says reliance on natural gas – believed by many to be a key source of alternative fuel for the future – would be a major mistake.

Whilst it could provide a short term solution to the energy issue, Professor Aleklett believes it is not the long term answer we need to tackle what he predicts will be a continuing decline in global oil production.

Professor Aleklett will outline his views this evening (Thursday 5 March) in his lecture Global Energy Resources – The Peak Oil View– which takes place as part of the institution’s Energy Controversies lecture series.

Professor Aleklett said: “The problem we should be concerning ourselves with is not climate change but the fact that there are too many people and not enough energy resources.

“We have reached a level where economic growth in the oil and gas industry is no longer possible. Looking for alternative energy sources has to become a key priority to counteract the continuing decline in global oil production which I predict we will experience.

“Many are looking to natural gas as a solution for electricity production in the future, but this is a massive mistake. Natural gas could generate enough energy to meet the demand for the next five to 10 years, but it is not a long term sustainable option.

“To expand the use of natural gas would be a mistake which could have catastrophic economical consequences for UK, Europe and across the globe in 20 years time. When we are hit by “Peak Gas” there are no alternatives for power generation. We have a discussion about future energy policy - it’s time to start to discuss the future power policy.”

The University’s Energy Controversies lecture series brings together leading international industry and academic experts to discuss the current challenges and debates facing the energy sector.

Professor Aleklett will deliver his lecture to a 250 strong audience at the sold out event which begins at 6pm at the University’s King’s College Conference Centre.

Aimed at influencing energy and social policy at a local and national level, the Energy Controversies series features seven public lectures and a discussion panel event.

Highly topical issues to be covered over the course of the series include:

The exhaustion of fossil fuel reserves and their decline as an energy source
The impact of the changing political climate on the energy industry
The concern surrounding the environmental impact of our continued use of fossil fuels

Dr Peter Jackson, Senior Director for Oil Industry Activity at Cambridge Energy Research Associates and Professor Bahman Tohidi, Director of the Centre for Gas Hydrate Research at Heriot Watt University, will be amongst the lecture speakers, providing their unique insights into critical issues high on the energy agenda over the next few weeks.

Anyone interested in booking a free place for any of the remaining lectures in the series should visit (well worth it - Ed) www.abdn.ac.uk/energycontroversies or telephone the University of Aberdeen Events Office on 01224 273874.

Now there is that word 'could' in there, much beloved by scientific experts and media looking to boost a rating with a worse case scenario, but this resonates. I invite comment form any better informed.

As with so many things pertinent to environmental debate, from population to peak oil, I simply look at the consequences of finite resources and increasing demand, and am not keen with what I see projected.

The age of oil is ending

When I saw that headline, I thought this article from the Vancouver Sun was going to be another of those sensational headline, eco-warrior, crazy rants ('we're all doomed') about the end of the world being nigh; but this is a largely considered and well structured comment, and is full of factual information, on the subject of Peak Oil.

The strange thing is, even though it is not written as a 'rant' story, it still leaves you feeling, well, rather concerned and worried about the future.

Hmmm .... perhaps time to clean up and re-grease my old bicycle?

President 'has four years to save Earth' - now that's what you call a 'sensational' headline. And from The Observer, no less.

I wonder if Obama will ask for Ol' Golden's help in saving the world?

Peak Oil

Two words that cause major disagreement every time they are used; so any article that provides a sensible and logically argued explanation of the Peak Oil concept is worth a few minutes reading.

This is one such by investor Praveen Jaiswal in Seeking Alpha. Enjoy.

Worried about Peak Oil?

And wondering what plans our Gov has to account for the forthcoming oil supply crunch?

Well, rather surprisingly, our Gov seems to think that oil supplies will not be a problem and that our economy will continue to sustain and grow as the UK's demand for oil continues to grow too.

Most experts within the oil business itself believe that peak oil will create a major economic headache for the western world and most western governments are actually making contingency plans - well, except ours.

Not compulsory, of course, but if you would like to lobby our Gov to actually DO something please feel free to sign up to the following Downing Street petition.

Houston, we have Peak Oil

I didn't pick up on this a few days ago, but it appears to signal a major change of tactics by our planet's largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia. According to EV World, King Abdullah has ordered some newly discovered, smaller oilfields to be left untapped for future Saudi generations, and he has also effectively put a cap on oil exports at 12.5 Million barrels per day.

"This is likely to result in an earlier occurrence of global peak oil output than many consumers yet recognize."

"the geologic oil supply constraints that we are feeling in many other parts of the world are going to close in on us earlier and more severely than we previously thought."

Genuine 'Peak Oil' may, or may not, have already been reached, depending upon whose data you consider, but it looks as if 'tactical' Peak Oil is definitely already here. With fuel prices currently at record highs, and some oil futures already trading at above $130, expect a rough ride ahead.

So, the big question is, what will come first - the £5 loaf of bread or the £10 gallon of fuel?

'Green' Oil?

Probably the best oxymoron I've ever heard! But that is genuinely a term used in this interesting article from TechNewsWorld.

Whilst we are rapidly running out of sources of sweet light crude oil, our little planet has a surfeit of heavy crude, which is difficult and expensive to make easy use of. So the development of a process that turns heavy crude into useful light oil sounds like a major breakthrough, and could well extend the time that humanity has to continue to utilise petroleum based products as the primary fuel of our modern way of living.

Be interesting to understand just just what potential EnviROI such a process has though.

"Genoil considers its process that converts heavy oil into light oil as environmentally sound. Lifschultz tells me, "Genoil's upgrading technology not only converts heavy oil into light oil, but also removes over 90 percent of the sulfur and a majority of the nitrogen which cause greenhouse gases that pollute the environment. In that sense, Genoil makes the oil green, or at least greener.""

But to describe oil as 'green'! Sorry, that's one of the worst attempts at greenwash I've ever seen. In fact its complete boll**ks!

Another very thought provoking article...

.... from Mother Jones (US based journalism website) on the approaching energy crisis, and more. Coming on the day after crude oil hit a new record of $115 a barrel, very worthwhile of a couple of minutes reading.

"Greenhouse gases, geology, and geo­politics give us no choice but to change our ways."

Shame the current US leadership team doesn't seem to have recognised this as yet, even though the cost of fuel is already hurting the American economy big style.

More CIF Peak Oil Argument

As ever, any article on Peak Oil in The Guardian's CIF section attracts a huge barrage of proponents from the extremes at both ends, and this is no exception.

Now I cannot understand why the concept of Peak Oil can be regarded as a 'doomsday cult' as the author implies. Likewise, in response to "And there is a grain of truth to peak oil theory. Oil is a finite reserve, so the more we extract, the closer we come to exhausting the resource."; A 'grain of truth'! It's an inescapable fact! Look, crude oil is a finite resource that human beings risk exhausting to their own detriment, as our modern industrial civilization is based almost entirely upon it!

No-one, other than a handful of real doom-mongerers, is suggesting that Peak Oil implies a sudden and disastrous disappearance of petroleum as a resource. However, it is entirely clear that over the coming decades the amount of easily available and recoverable sweet (i.e. easily usable) crude is without doubt going to decline. It may decline slowly over several decades, or it may start to decline at an accelerating rate some time in the future, but decline it inevitably will.

As for Peak Oil's proponents being "a rag-bag of geologists, green activists, Malthusians, and people who yearn for a return to some pre-industrial idyll", well, the only one of those monikers I can hold my hand up to is that I am (well, was) a trained Geologist (Geo-Chemist actually).

And comparing the cost of a barrel of oil with a barrel of Coca-Cola - well, that has to be one of the most spurious comparisons I have ever seen!

Perhaps, as one of the CIF posters suggests, we should term the problem that is now starting to confront us as Cheap Oil, rather than Peak Oil. Maybe more people will be able to understand that description.

Whatever side of the argument that you sit on, it is abundantly clear that: in conjunction with [Likely] Man Worsened Climate Change (with its associated loss of water supplies and harsher crop growing conditions); an already rapid increase in the prices of staple foodstuffs; the ever increasing population of our little lump of planetary rock; our continuing destruction of native environments in the pursuit of earning a few bucks; our rape of the oceans already highly depleted resources; Peak (OK then, Cheap) Oil, is simply one problem in a long list of issues that humanity needs to address urgently.

Now if that makes me subject to being termed a 'Malthusian' then so be it. Sorry, but to me, it seems little more than basic common sense. Remember what happened to the population of Easter Island?

Government Incompetence?

Or deliberate policy?

The second question is mine, the first is from an interesting article in today's Guardian.

I've questioned the ridiculous state of government grants for renewables before, but somehow it seems to have got even worse than it was!

Whilst the DBERR is set to under spend the £18m low carbon buildings programme by £10m over the three years to March 2009, we get this!

"Last May BERR simply slashed the grants and made them more difficult to get. The result, entirely predictably, was a collapse. ............ Throughout much of 2006, for example, it was making 30-40 grants a month for ground source heat pumps. In the last three months of 2007, no such grants were made. There is a similar decline for solar thermal (hot water) and micro wind turbines. Not a single grant was allocated for a domestic solar PV system last month while the Germans installed about 12,000 systems."

And the DBERR is making no energy contingency plans for the eventuality of peak oil in case it causes panic! This no longer sounds like a bit of a shambles - it IS a bloody shambles!

What a difference a year makes!

Back in January 2007, Peter posted an interesting piece on an interview with three big cheeses at Davos. Having heard the piece, and commented accordingly, about the facile answers given, I remembered a quote from Shell's big cheese, Jeroen van der Veer, who, responding to a pertinent question from John Humphrys about the possibility of peak oil, said, “In 20 years time we’ll use more oil and gas than we do today”.

Well, according to this report from ThisIsScotland, van der Veer appears to have changed his mind somewhat.

"In an e-letter to staff that must surely be splattered right across the Big Oil community by now, and be doing the rounds of NOCs (national oil corporations), Shell's CEO basically says that conventional oil output will peak in seven years - oh, and gas shortages are on the way, too."

Now that's what I call an about face! And if the CEO of Shell is now admitting that the planet is going to have an energy problem (due to the lack of petroleum resources and natural gas) sooner rather than later, then it looks as if the human race's need to get into renewable technologies is going to be even more urgent than any of us ever realised.

One day, the machine will stop

That's a quote taken from John Gray's piece in Sunday's Guardian CIF.

I found the article quite interesting, mainly for the plethora of viewpoints that the usual gamut of posters on CIF bring, but also for Gray's analogy of our planet being an obese patient hooked up to a life support system.

"To some extent, technology may be able to replace the biosphere that has been destroyed, but, like an obese patient hooked up to an artificial life-support system, we will be living on borrowed time. One day, the machine will stop."

He also manages to hint at the policy that dare not speak its name.

"Far more than fantastical schemes for renewable energy, we need to ensure that contraception and abortion are freely available everywhere. A world of fewer people would be far better placed to deal with climate change than the heavily overpopulated one we are heading for now."

Oh, by the way, you'll need a good 20 minutes spare if you want to read all the comments posted.

And, just for balance, as I found the article interesting reading, one poster terms Gray "a flip-flopper who has perfected an incredibly irritating style of writing which is best characterised as 'smugism' : statement of large philosophical beliefs expressed with loads of magisterial certainty, without any argument."

Ouch!

Interesting comments on Peak Oil

I stumbled across this pretty much by chance. From GoldSeek - The Casey Files.

It's the transcript of an interview between Doug Casey (of Casey Research) and Matt Simmons, one of the world leading authorities on investing in energy businesses, and founder and chair of the world's largest energy investment banking company.

Simmons reckons that Peak Oil was reached in May 2005, and that overall production can at best stay at current levels, rather than increase at all.

On sour, heavy oil (such as from the tar sands of Alberta, Canada - "With the heavy oil out of Canada, you have to expend energy to make it ooze out of the ground, and once it’s oozed out of the ground, you still have totally unusable oil."

On Liquefied Natural Gas - "the problem with LNG is that if we try to develop a spot market out of LNG, the odds of it ending in bankruptcy are about 90%."

On natural gas as a means of generating electricity - "using natural gas for electricity turned out to be an unbelievably stupid decision. Using electricity for heat was equally stupid. Natural gas should be refined to one use and one use only, and that’s creating instantaneous and high-efficiency heat."

On corn based ethanol - "Corn-based ethanol was just a terrible, tragic mistake..........Even worse, it’s a very low-quality source of energy. Low BTU, highly corrosive, you can’t mix it with anything, it was just a terrible idea."

And he introduces the concept of liquid ammonia as a fuel, something novel to me.

Informative, concise, factually packed and thought provoking; thoroughly recommended and well worth the read.
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Oh, and potentially quite useful if you have (unlike Peter and myself) a substantial wallet-full to invest.

Peak oil / peak water.

An interesting article from Online Journal on how peak oil might affect America. One or two quite interesting observations and comments, not least of which is the suggestion that "Peak Oil and the steps we must take to solve its effects upon our society will naturally contribute to also slowing down the escalation of Global Warming." I also find it interesting that peak oil might just indicate the potential demise of the huge global supermarket entities.

Now peak water usage in the UK apparently occurs in the South East of England, where average use is greater than anywhere else in Europe, according to Times Online. Well, that didn't really surprise me overtly, but I was surprised to note that "the South East of England has less (water) available per person than Sudan or Syria".

Ouch!

This might be very painful for commercial enterprises and consumers right across the planet - Oil price could hit $150 a barrel.

On the other hand it could go down by $30 a barrel.

Isn't 'could' a great word.
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Call for curb on speculators - The Guardian.

Alas, poor world, what treasure hast thou lost!

William Shakespeare (Venus and Adonis)

That's a quote from the end of an interesting article from 2004 by Paul Thompson which suggests that we are approaching, as he sees it, a society facing oil depletion that will be unable to cope, and ultimately the twilight of the modern world. (And he doesn't even mention climate change!)

He breaks down the way he sees humanity (or at least, its remnants) surviving in an oil depleted world into four key successive phases, which he describes as 'Awareness', 'Transition' (from ordered to anarchic), 'Scavengery' and 'Self-Sufficiency', and details what he sees as the way societies change across this entire time period.

It made my eyebrows twitch in quite a few places but has certainly provided me with a lot of food for thought. Well worth a read if you can find the time.

Now whether this is the sort of thing that simply creates more noise, or is genuinely worthy of further consideration is left up to you, the reader. Does it provide interesting insights and information; or does it simply create more confusing noise? (Which is what happens when humans are presented with a surfeit of information.) Because, at a certain point, an overload of information does indeed become noise.

How do you tell the difference? Don't ask me, my head's spinning, but, to paraphrase one of the philosophers, (I forget which), wisdom is the ability to tell the difference between information and noise, and to know when you know enough to act. (It was something like that)

So you tell me. Is the guy a mentally deranged nutter, describing a set of ridiculous fantasy scenarios; or is he an extremely prescient forecaster of what may happen come the end of the fossil fuel driven industrial and technological revolution?

'Peak Oil' plus 'Climate change' equals what?

Well, some quite frightening trends, and some scary scenarios, according to this piece from Saturday's Irish Times.

"Energy and climate change are now directly affecting the world's peace and prosperity. We have only a short time to cut oil dependence and slash carbon emissions."

Time for mankind to get its act together? Or too late to do so?

Peak oil - are we already there?

Peak Oil has been a much talked about event for quite a few years now, but this from The Guardian reports on the findings of Germany's Energy Watch Group, suggests that far from having many years to go before we get there, peak oil actually occurred in 2006. (Oh, and note the eye-catching and scaremongering headline, which talks of 'war and unrest', neither of which are mentioned again in the article.)

"The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel."

And I've noticed today that some futures for oil are trading around the $100+ mark.

"But the government prefers to sleep on without even doing a contingency study. For those of us who know that premature peak oil is a clear and present danger, it is impossible to understand such complacency."

There's nowt like burying your head in the sand; and this in the very week that our very own government is going to backtrack on its much vaunted renewables targets! (See Not Ready. Miss. Re-Aim below). So when big oil's pumps run dry, as they inevitably will, at least here in the UK we'll be able to fill up with alternative renewable fuels like bio-deisel and ethanol ....... NOT!!

Addendum:
More scary headlines ........ 'Peak Oil could trigger meltdown of society' is the headline that Renew, Reuse, Recycle comes up with for its interpretation of this same report.

ADDENDUM (from Junkk Male)

Guardian - It's rip-off Britain, even when it comes to climate change - I so envy such as Directors of orgnaisations who get paid well to say lots of things. Post by 'askingquestions' is well worth a read.

Gaurdian - Give ministers some credit for green measures

An interesting snippet on Peak Oil

From Andrew Leonard of Salon.com, who takes a slightly bemused view of the rather optimistic stance that some in the oil industry are still taking; 'there's loads more left to be extracted from the planet' and 'climate change will make the extraction of oil from hostile polar regions easier'.

"The oil companies are going to be in business for a long long time, extracting every last milliliter of oil and gas from every last nook and cranny in the earth. Whether we can afford to pay for the resulting product is an entirely different question."

Quite!
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Well, unless you believe the Russian's theory that crude oil and natural petroleum gas are simply primordial materials erupted from the depths of our planet and nothing to do with being a biological residue of plant and animal fossil remains. As reported on Scoop in September.